Trump’s threat isn’t just non-credible – the positive market reaction in Russia suggests it is a gift for Moscow. The 50-day ultimatum is seen not as a deadline but as a reprieve, meaning nearly two months of guaranteed inaction from the US.

U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to choke off Russia’s oil revenue via secondary sanctions would deal a hammer blow to Moscow's finances, but markets are betting that the risk of higher energy prices will keep Washington from following through.